Darrell Castle talks about the fact, proven over centuries, that war is easy to start but hard to get out of and if one gets out, the continuing effects exist long into the future.
Transcription / Notes
THE SHELF LIFE OF THE IRANIAN WAR
Hello, this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. This is Friday the 13th day of March in the year of our Lord 2026. Once again my beat is war and Friday the 13th seems like a good day to talk about something so unpleasant. I will be talking about the fact, proven over centuries, that war is easy to start but hard to get out of and if one gets out the continuing effects exist long into the future.
Yes, this is Friday the 13th once again and we are only two days from the Ides of March which was the date of Julius Ceasar’s assassination on 15 March 44 BC. He was born in 100 BC so by my rough calculations that would make him 2126 years old today. Why talk about Ceasar more than 2000 years after his death, because he has been the gold standard for leaders who became emperors since then. Emperors in Rome, for example, continued to be called Ceasar after his death and today we ask as did Shakespear, upon what meat doth this our Ceasar feed that he has grown so strong.
Our Ceasar today has certainly grown strong. But I submit that his meat is money and especially oil. Reports say that the U.S. has borrowed more than $50 billion per month for the last 5 months and that this war is costing in excess of $1 billion per day. The more important problem is oil and how much does it cost. The price of oil at the pump for the American consumer is what will determine if the U.S. can stay at war indefinitely or will have to declare victory and come home. It’s really hard to just come home when you have demanded unconditional surrender in an undeclared war.
Gas prices have accelerated but there are still a few desperation moves to temporarily moderate them. For the average American rising gas prices mean lowered standard of living because the real effect is similar to a cut in pay. The employer doesn’t increase wages because it costs more to get to work so you have a lower standard of living and lowered optimism. Oil effects virtually everything price wise because everything has to be made or harvested and transported and that drives up the cost of living for each American.
Iran is a major source of oil for the world or at least it was. Iran was a major supplier of oil to China with about 45% of China’s 11 million barrels per day of imports passing through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. That Strait is now closed by Iranian mines and anti-ship missiles. The administration has made it clear that the Iranian navy and air force are no more so this closing is a little hard to understand. Reports stated that the U.S. Navy sank 10 or 11 mine layers earlier this week so my question is why not sink them before they laid the mines.
The end of Iranian oil has created opportunities for others to step up production which I imagine has made Russia and Vladimir Putin quite happy. The world price of oil is rising rapidly which puts money into Rusia for domestic use and to prosecute the Ukrainian war. Trump is very aware of the effect of rising oil prices on his poll numbers and on the upcoming mid-term elections so he has taken steps to alleviate it. He and Mr. Putin had what was described as a very good call on the 9th and Russia has been freed from sanctions to sell its oil on the world market. It will be a little higher in price for China than the cheap Iranian oil but nevertheless it will help. Trump is also freeing up several million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve something he criticized Biden for doing to help his poll numbers.
China has to be hurting from all this war and oil strangulation because reports are that about 90% of Chinese oil came from Venezuela, Iran and Russia and now only Russia is left. Perhaps telling China that it will no longer get energy from the Western Hemisphere or from U.S. allies is the point of the war. That is just speculation on my part but with the attack on the cartels in collaboration with other South and Latin American countries it makes sense. Rising energy prices will be hard for China’s export driven economy to absorb because it makes all their exports less affordable worldwide. Trump is scheduled to travel to China later this month to meet with Xi Jinping so we’ll see how that goes.
So, as the title of this Castle Report suggests the U.S. and Israel need to end the war before prices in the U.S. rise so much they effect public support for the administration. There are many events from war that can be hidden or censored from the public but it is hard to hide price increases at the pump. Casualties can be hidden to a certain extent for example getting real casualty figures has been close to impossible so far. We learned this week that at least 8 Americans and today 4 crewmen in a refueling tanker died so 12 are now dead and about 150 wounded. Some of those are gravely wounded with brain injuries and burns and may not recover. Those numbers have been censored but they leak out so accurate or not, we can’t be certain.
The other thing that is easier to censor from Americans is damage to infrastructure and casualty figures from others targeted because they host Americans. The U.S. bases and embassies in several of the Gulf States including Saudi Arabia have been seriously damaged by missile and drone attacks. In addition, the attacks have hit infrastructure and civilians which have nothing to do with Americans.
These problems are much harder to solve because no one seems to know who is currently in charge in Iran. The Supreme Leader is dead and his son was appointed in his place. He might be dead or wounded but for some reason he seems to no longer be in charge. The very religious and new Islamic supreme leader apparently owns about $140 million of prime real estate in London’s billionaire row. Does he control the military, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps or (IRGC) and if not who does. There are indications that no one does and the IRGC is acting on orders of individual officers. That would explain why the new leader apologizes to the Arab states which Iran attacked and said it was a mistake which would not be repeated. The attacks continued after his apology as if it had not been made.
The U.S. cost of living and that of the world for that matter is why the Strait of Hormuz seems likely to be the deciding point of the length of U.S. involvement. A war of conquest with a ground invasion of Iran would probably be long, bloody, and very expensive and therefore can’t happen. Oh, wait I’m sorry I mean it can’t happen if there are rational, non-insane people making the decisions. The key to the war, then, is the battle to keep the Strait open and with it the flow of oil. Air power can probably destroy the IRGC and that should make it somewhat easier, but we have known since the end of World War ll that air power alone will not make determined people give up their homeland.
The options then seem to me to be destroy the IRGC very quickly, which may or may not be possible, somehow get a new regime into power which can control them and which also may not be possible, or just fight it out however long it takes in the Strait. I guess some combination of all three is also possible. I am certain that Trump wants out of this mess, but I doubt if the Israelis do.
He held a meeting this week with the heads of various defense firms and told them to ramp up production of missiles both cruise and Patriot air defense missiles so the U.S. is running low. The Iranians answer by making 100,000 suicide drones at $20,000 each instead of the multi-million missiles to attempt to shoot them down. The Iranian tactic seems to be the rope-a-dope whereby the U.S. fires all its missiles then the Kamikaze drones counterattack. People tried to warn Trump but apparently he wasn’t listening or had bad advisers as well.
My own view, and this is pure speculation on my part, is that Trump believes that World Warlll has already started but it is a cold war right now pitting many forces against each other. We have what Reagan called the axis of evil consisting of China, Russia, Venezuela, Iran and North Korea. Two of those are gone and the rest are nuclear armed. Trump is apparently trying to cozy up to Putin which I imagine makes Xi a little nervous.
Then we have the forces of the European global elite as managed by the World Economic Forum and its great reset of global bureaucracy and its unelected world government. Opposing those we have the American way of individual nation states living in freedom so that seems like the battle to me.
In conclusion, I remember the wise words of a man I once heard say that if I am proud of anything about my life I am proudest of my humility. Well, I echo that now and admit that I know very little firsthand just what logic and research produce so I use my best guess powered by some experience. I know from history that the Middle East contains a lot of people with long memories. Apparently they are still settling disputes that happened over 1000 years ago.
Finally, folks, children don’t start wars they just die in them. It is a terrible thing to go to war and this one seems especially brutal. It appears that this attack was unprovoked and that makes it even sadder. I pray that it ends soon.
At least that’s the way I see it,
Until next time folks,
This is Darell Castle,
Thanks for listening.
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